Been doing some research on this program - experts or so called experts are saying this is going to have a major impact on the trucking industry - been talking with a few customers who just think it is a scare tactic to get the rates up or that it won't affect their business...looking for some feedback and opinions - how do you feel it is going to affect the industry and the shippers?
Csa 2010
- Thread starter brwnee
- Start date
I think that this will have a huge impact on the industry. The seminars and training sessions that I have been attending here and in the US has me a little concerned. If the US DOT push this as the way that they are saying there will be a lot of carriers that will be in trouble. I for one think that it is a great move and it will weed out the carriers that will not comply. I also believe that the rates will go up as there will only be suitable carriers to move it. And yes a shipper will be able to see the carriers performance and decide if he should use them or not. I have a presentation that I could forward to you with all the info you need if you want to send me a PM with your e-mail.
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10
Makes sense in theory
The model works in many other areas. The idea is predictive modeling. I'm no baseball fan but this is the same math that helped the Oakland A's and the Boston Red Sox win the world series. Basically, you can analyze all the factors that are collected in baseball stats. You run them through a regression analysis and it will tell you the 3 or four factors that are most significant in predicting the outcome. In baseball, James Ashenfelter did this for player selection to help his teams win the World Series.
CSA is doing the same thing. It's looking for the most significant predictors of accidents. If you can change driver's behaviors BEFORE an accident, that is really what you want to do.
In practise, it's hard to tell whether it will work or not. Your talking about trying to change the behavior of hundreds of thousands of drivers, who will definately change their behaviour when you introduce new rules, however, the change may not be as intended and you could possibly shift the whole dynamic of what the model was based on in the first place.
P.S. - If your a stats geek like me, I recommend reading "Super Crunchers" by Ian Ayres. He goes into more detail about the Baseball stats and many other interesting applications of this method.
The model works in many other areas. The idea is predictive modeling. I'm no baseball fan but this is the same math that helped the Oakland A's and the Boston Red Sox win the world series. Basically, you can analyze all the factors that are collected in baseball stats. You run them through a regression analysis and it will tell you the 3 or four factors that are most significant in predicting the outcome. In baseball, James Ashenfelter did this for player selection to help his teams win the World Series.
CSA is doing the same thing. It's looking for the most significant predictors of accidents. If you can change driver's behaviors BEFORE an accident, that is really what you want to do.
In practise, it's hard to tell whether it will work or not. Your talking about trying to change the behavior of hundreds of thousands of drivers, who will definately change their behaviour when you introduce new rules, however, the change may not be as intended and you could possibly shift the whole dynamic of what the model was based on in the first place.
P.S. - If your a stats geek like me, I recommend reading "Super Crunchers" by Ian Ayres. He goes into more detail about the Baseball stats and many other interesting applications of this method.
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Has anyone here started to discuss the impacts of this program with their customers ( shippers ) - I approached the subject with a few and was quite surprised by the ignorance - some said it was just a scare tactic for carriers to raise rates - others have said it will not impact them - curious as to whether this is the typical response.
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I have sat down with all of my customers and explained in great detail my version on how I think that this will impact them. My customers were very happy that I went to them and they did not think that it was a "scare tactic" and took it quite serious. A lot of them even started investigating this on their own. I for one hope that it works the way it is intended to but time will tell.
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CSA2010 will finally put some teeth in enforcement and it may weed out the bad guys or educate the ones who sacrifice safety and compliance because they're making poor business decisions on another level. Once ACI is put into play, I think you'll find a lot of the small flash-in-the-pan upstarts will stop, um, upstarting so much. They won't be able to get into Canada if they are not ACI-compliant and if they screw up too much, it's game over, even if the DOT hasn't caught up with them quickly enough for safety issues.