I think another year before the rest of the Brampton trash takes itself out. Then rates should come back to normal. (whatever the fuck that is)
I'm not so sure. There's a couple of things we have to think about ...
Tariffs are the big one. I don't think anyone is really sure how this one is going to shake out, and unfortunately our current government has, for the moment anyways, decided to fight a war it has absolutely no chance of winning.
It could be that transportation goes on as normal and the economy simply gets more expensive. Or, it could be that cross border transportation completely disappears, and all those trucks enter the domestic market.
If it's the former, then rates will creep upwards as attrition, immigration, and U.S. rules (like ELP) take their toll.
If it's the latter. well, then we got us a real dog fight on our hands, and frankly, I don't think there will be any winners. The Canadian transportation sector, as we know it today, will disappear.
The next biggest hurdle is immigration. If overall immigration numbers go down, current work visas are allowed to expire without renewal, then the driving force contracts, and the used equipment market expands, resulting in rates increasing over time. There is a double edge to this sword though. If rates get to be high enough, U.S. domiciled trucks will start re-entering the market.
Then there is Driver Inc. and Facility Insurance. Both are being worked on by governments and industry alike.
Slowly but surely governments are auditing Driver Inc. fleets on an ever increasing basis, and they are making headway. However, I don't think they had a clue as to how prevalent the practice was and are finding themselves severely undermanned for the amount of audits they have to do.
Facility Insurance and Government Insurance (yes, I'm looking at you Manitoba & BC) have got to go. My personal belief, and it is supported by others, is that Facility Insurance has no place in the commercial space, and Government insurance should not expose an entire population to the carelessness of one single person.
So, as we all sit here at this moment, it's a roll of the dice as to what happens. We will get a better sense of direction after the U.S. midterm elections, and further insight as we enter Q1 '27.
In the meantime, each of us should seriously consider offering up some prayers to whatever Gods we believe in for a better day tomorrow, and the hope that we make it there.
