I hate to use the R-word

[MikeJr]

So,

If real estate has been down/flat/crappy for the last 10 months, the stock markets have been crap the last 3 months (don't look at your RRSP statement until at least a year from now), and more and more carrier I'm speaking to are telling me business September - November has been slower than the past several years why is not one suggesting that we are in or approaching a possible recession? Is it because no one wants it to be true, all the signs are there.

I try not to be a pessimist but the writing is on the wall.

Keep well,
Mike

 

[chica123]

I have read some articles lately, Mike saying that the economy is ripe for a recession as well. I'm not an expert of course, but the some signs are definitely there. Have a super day!

 

[KeyFactor]

Inverted yield curve in the US...10-yr treasuries yielding less than shorter-term maturities....predicted all but one recession in past 50 years. Sorry to sound like an investment geek, but once a CFA, always a CFA.

 

[Salma]

So,

If real estate has been down/flat/crappy for the last 10 months, the stock markets have been crap the last 3 months (don't look at your RRSP statement until at least a year from now), and more and more carrier I'm speaking to are telling me business September - November has been slower than the past several years why is not one suggesting that we are in or approaching a possible recession? Is it because no one wants it to be true, all the signs are there.

I try not to be a pessimist but the writing is on the wall.

Keep well,
Mike

I ABSOLUTELY believe a recession is coming - or maybe it is already happening? I really don't know anything much about markets, economical indicators, blah, blah, blah but this last quarter has been brutal for us! It is way slower this year than in past years. I don't care who you are or what other industry you work in - transportation ALWAYS knows before anyone else when a recession is approaching. We knew it last time and the same things are happening again so.....
I don't need any "experts" to tell me what is happening because our bank account tells us everything we need to know! lol

 

[lowmiler88]

Here is my 2 cents our outbound is really strong, too much actually, we have seen the inbound soften in price and you may have to work a little harder to get a load. Soften in price means back from the crazy rates but still higher than before unless you are in the over serviced markets of say Atlanta and those prices are back to the old days. Our other company sells to all retailers across Canada and those sales are up and no signs of slowing down (does not mean it won't) but so far so good. I think companies living off load boards are struggling, people with direct contracts with manufacturers not so much, to me load boards are shark infested waters and if they smell blood then they will attack. Also from previous posts insurance is going up, trucks are going up, trailers are going up but try and order any of them and see how long you'll have to wait. I think if the trade war between the US and China can be resolved 2019 will be a happy year if not late 2019 will be very interesting.

 

[Michael Ludwig]

In everything I have been able to get my hands on, all indications are for 2019 to remain relatively stable, but watch for a recession in the first half of 2020.

 

[Henry]

Ive heard at least another year with properties decreasing in values...Especially the higher end homes.
Stay positive, we will get through.

 

[TransAction]

The simple fact is the economy is cyclical It expands and contracts. The last recession was 10 years ago so we are due soon.

 

[KeyFactor]

Ive heard at least another year with properties decreasing in values...Especially the higher end homes.
Stay positive, we will get through.

Not sure anyone can predict the timing...too many variables. Asset prices (stocks, houses, etc.) have risen too fast relative to their underlying forward earnings. All we need is some small hiccup (eg. slow down in spending due to trade wars, Brexit, rising housing costs, increase in wages relative to corp. profits, etc.) and everyone starts to see the glass as half empty. If we try to predict the exact timing...what's the saying?...pigs get slaughtered.

 

[Henry]

Not sure anyone can predict the timing...too many variables. Asset prices (stocks, houses, etc.) have risen too fast relative to their underlying forward earnings. All we need is some small hiccup (eg. slow down in spending due to trade wars, Brexit, rising housing costs, increase in wages relative to corp. profits, etc.) and everyone starts to see the glass as half empty. If we try to predict the exact timing...what's the saying?...pigs get slaughtered.

Seems like we are already there.

 

[KeyFactor]

Seems like we are already there.

True...stock market has already given up some of its gains, but a true "R"-word is defined by consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, so by that definition, we're not quite there YET because those things I mentioned have not yet affected reported GDP. Wait, for example, for Brexit to actually happen with all its associated changes to the movement of goods between the EU and the UK. Can't see that going very smoothly.

 

[Freight Broker]

Hard to say.. things have been pretty brisk around here until things went over a cliff on Dec. 1.. checked if my phones are working.. yup. But things have really been slow this month. But then again December has always been sort of a wild card for me.. Sometimes its really busy while other years have been slow. I'm not too worried about it..

Apart from natural economic cycles, the Trumpster has had alot to do with the current uncertainty in the marketplace. He's "fixed" NAFTA, and now he's picked a fight with China.. Who knows how that will end. Throw in Brexit, the war in Yemen, and the gloom and doom over the environment.. almost makes one want to take up homesteading 200 miles north of Kenora..

Hopefully we won't see another downturn like 2008/2009.. or dare I say it... 1930-1939. It could happen again.

 

[Michael Ludwig]

Comparatively, 2008/2009 was much worse than 1929/1930 ... but that's just me being fussy on the facts. Either way, a recession will be devastating to the world economy, not just the North American economy.